Quarterly Reports

Quarterly Reports

1st Quarter 2017 Chain Restaurant Update Manufacturer Final

1st Half 2017 Chain Restaurant Update Operator

4th Quarter 2016 Chain Restaurant Update

3rd Quarter 2016 Chain Restaurant Update

A respectable Q3 for most limited service brands, with a wide range of performance patterns being reported (Chipotle being the outlier, still suffering -20s SSS declines).

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First Half 2016 Chain Restaurant Update August 2016

4th Quarter 2015 Chain Restaurant Update

3rd Quarter 2015 Chain Restaurant Update December 2015

2nd Quarter 2015 Chain Restaurant

1st Quarter 2015 Chain Restaurant Update July MFR

4th Quarter 2014 Chain Restaurant Update

The positive momentum began with the November 2014 election results, combined with gas prices which are one?third less than what they were one year ago. As much as anything, this immediately impacts consumer confidence and behavior. The feeling of extra cash has a favorable impact on the willingness to go out for a meal.  

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3rd Quarter 2014 Chain Restaurant Update

Two brands have dominated discussions around the 3rd Quarter – McDonald’s sales declines, and Chipotle’s incredible performance. The fact is 3rd Quarter 2014 was actually pretty good for most chain restaurants. Let’s do a fist bump for the lower gas prices and hope they last for a while.

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2nd Quarter 2014 Chain Restaurant Update

Like everyone else, when we first saw the Chipotle report, our immediate reaction was that there must a typo! There wasn’t. There’s no unique explanation for that type of performance – it’s all about how they have built the culture of the organization. They resonate very well with their loyal users, certainly. There was a price increase, but that is still an incredible performance. It all starts with leadership, the culture they live and the examples they set as individuals.

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1st Quarter 2014 Chain Restaurant Update

Record cold weather hurt many brands, especially those with a strong presence in the colder climates. Yet some brands did well regardless. The pizza delivery brands actually benefitted from the extreme weather, with every brand in the category performing well.

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4th Quarter 2013 Chain Restaurant Update

Overall, given the record cold all across the country in December, the 4th Quarter was not as bad as some might have feared. To be sure, the brunt of the record winter weather will impact the first quarter, but given the environment and initial expectations, the trends were actually somewhat positive.

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3nd Quarter 2013 Chain Restaurant Update

Red Robin, Starbucks, Popeye’s, and Buffalo Wild Wings continue to perform well. Each has a unique, compelling brand promise they deliver on very well. Beyond that, each brand continues to innovate not only with the menu, but the overall guest experience.

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2nd Quarter 2013 Chain Restaurant Update

Cautious optimism began to emerge in the 2nd Quarter. There were more positives than negatives, with some brands showing traffic growth. The successful brands are doing a great job of engaging consumers in new, more relevant ways.

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1st Quarter 2013 Chain Restaurant Update

Again mixed results for the industry, another indicator of a mature business. There are a certain number of away from home eating occasions that consumers allow for, which is a function of how they feel about their economics, and that percentage of their income they spend on food away from home.

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4th Quarter 2012 Chain Restaurant Update

The landscape in the chain restaurant industry continues to change. Admittedly, these changes are moving slowly and in some cases are modest, yet they matter. An example that stands out is the changes in the composition of the senior management teams at some of the leading firms.

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3rd Quarter 2012 Chain Restaurant Update

In looking at the brands that performed well in the 3rd quarter, there seem to be three sets of characteristics in common.

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1st Quarter 2012 Chain Restaurant Update

The first quarter of 2012 continues to show a light at the end of the tunnel. Many chains are showing stronger performance versus last year, but the overarching prevalence of three distinct groups – winners, loses, and those stagnating in the middle – remains.

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4th Quarter 2011 Chain Restaurant Update

The fourth quarter of 2011 continued to show improvement for the chain restaurant world. However, the overall patterns remain: There are a few clear winners, a large number of chains in the middle showing some improvement, and there continue to be a group of chains whose business is struggling or declining. Our advice is to look carefully at your customer portfolio and allocate resources against those chains that are winning.

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Third Quarter 2011 Chain Performance

Fundamentals matter again. We are seeing that the chains that are turning around are focusing on the fundamentals again – the basic blocking and tackling while staying true to their brand.

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Second Quarter 2011 Chain Performance

There are three groups of chain operators that are seeing growth today: Those that are focused on innovation and new menu items, those that are staying relevant to their loyal users and those that have a unique value position. See who is doing what today!

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First Quarter 2011 Chain Performance

An important aspect of a chain is beginning to show its impact – the culture of the organization is important in how chains make decisions and stay connected with their consumers. It also looks like we are beginning to see the turn in performance for many chains.

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Fourth Quarter 2010 Chain Performance

An important aspect of a chain is beginning to show its impact – the culture of the organization is important in how chains make decisions and stay connected with their consumers. It also looks like we are beginning to see the turn in performance for many chains.

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Third Quarter 2010 Chain Performance

The third quarter of 2010 continued to show that performance comes down to execution at the brand level. Some brands are gaining strength, some are losing, making it more important than ever to carefully pick your partners.

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Second Quarter 2010 Chain Performance

The second quarter of 2010 was also a mixed bag – some concepts and segments are recovering, some are struggling. Here’s a look at the winners and the losers.

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First Quarter 2010 Chain Performance

The first quarter of 2010 was a mixed bag – some concepts and segments are recovering, some are struggling. This look at the changes in the performance of the leading chains should give you some useful insights.

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Fourth Quarter 2009 Chain Performance

The fourth quarter performance numbers for 2009 are showing some signs of life. This update is a little later than the others due to year end closing for many chains

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Third Quarter 2009 Chain Performance:

The third quarter performance numbers for 2009 are pretty tough. But we still believe that those who stay true to their brand and market approach will survive these difficult times.

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Second Quarter 2009 Chain Performance

Here’s what we see happening in the chain world for the second quarter of 2009 – some good news and some bad news.

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First Quarter 2009 Chain Performance:

Here you will find a first look at the 2009 first quarter chain performance, including an update on chains in bankruptcy or liquidation.

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Fourth Quarter 2008 Chain Performance

Here is a look at how the chain restaurants fared in the fourth quarter of 2008 – not a very pretty picture.  You will also find Bellwether’s take on what manufacturers can do to improve their sales performance with the chains.

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Third Quarter 2008 Chain Performance

A look at chain restaurant performance in the third quarter, the outlook for the remainder of 2008, and our take on how manufacturers should respond.

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Second Quarter 2008 Chain Performance

A look at same store sales performance for selected chains, and the outlook from the balance of 2008

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First Quarter 2008 Chain Performance:

A quick look at how selected chain restaurants performed in the first quarter, and the Bellwether outlook for the second quarter and the balance of the year.  

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